Friday, September 28, 2007

 

Weighted Least Squares and Why More Data is Better

<p>In doing statistics, when should we weight different observations differently?<p>

Suppose I have 10 independent observations of $x$ and I want to estimate the population mean, $\mu$. Why should I use the unweighted sample mean rather than weighting the first observation .91 and each of the rest by .01?<p>

Either way, I get an unbiased estimate, but the unweighted mean gives me lower variance of the estimator. If I use just observation 1 (a weight of 100% on it) then my estimator has the variance of the disturbance. If I use two observations, then a big positive disturbance on observation 1 might be cancelled out by a big negative on observation 2. Indeed, the worst case is that observation 2 also has a big positive disturbance, in which case I am no worse off by having it. I do not want to overweight any one observation, because I want mistakes to cancel out as evenly as possible.<p>

All this is completely free of the distribution of the disturbance term. It doesn't rely on the Central Limit Theorem, which says that as $n$ increases then the distribution of the estimator approaches the normal distribution (if I don't use too much weighting, at least!).<p>

If I knew that observation 1 had a smaller disturbance on average, then I *would* want to weight it more heavily. That's heteroskedasticity. <p>

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