Tuesday, October 2, 2007

 

Bayesian vs. Frequentist Statistical Theory: George and Susan

Susan either likes George or dislikes him. His prior belief is that there is a 50% chance that she likes him. He also believes that if she does, there is an 80% chance she will smile at him, and if she does not, there is a 60% chance. She smiles at him. What should he think of that?

The Frequentist approach says that George should choose the answer which has the greatest likelihood given the data, and so he should believe that she likes him.Click here to read more

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